With more than 4,000 nautical miles to cover, weather strategy is a central concern for Pacific Puddle Jump participants. Organizer David Allouch, former participants, and weather router Christian Dumard share their experience and advice for a smooth transpacific crossing.
Max and Elizabeth Shaw took part in the Pacific Puddle Jump in 2014, and for them, the weather support provided by the organizers was one of the highlights of the experience:
“The Pacific Ocean is very different from what we were used to, so it was essential to better understand the weather systems and the different strategies to follow along the route—especially the Intertropical Convergence Zone [commonly known as the Doldrums], which is one of the most challenging parts of the crossing. The PPJ organization advised us on the best time to depart, and that was extremely valuable.”
One of the unique aspects of the Pacific Puddle Jump is the freedom participants have in choosing both their departure location and date—whether from Mexico or Panama—which naturally leads to very different initial conditions, as explained by renowned weather router Christian Dumard.
“Those departing from Mexico will first encounter a relatively weak easterly wind regime,” he explains, but they must also closely monitor a local phenomenon in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, in southern Mexico.
“The Tehuano is a strong north-northeasterly, and sometimes northeasterly, gap wind. It is caused by cold air behind a front being funneled through the Chivela Pass across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, then bursting violently into the Pacific. It is most frequent from October to February and can reach gale to storm force.”
Christian Dumard—currently routing the all-female crew of IDEC Sport for the Jules Verne Trophy—adds:
“The strategy is to wait for a well-established easterly flow and sail directly toward Tahiti until reaching the Doldrums, which lie roughly at the latitude of Panama. At that point, you head due south to cross it as quickly as possible. On the exit, the wind will be southerly, requiring some upwind sailing, but it will gradually veer to the southeast, allowing a direct course to the Marquesas.”
For those departing from Panama, therefore starting further south, the main risk during the first few days is encountering thunderstorms and associated lightning. Christian Dumard advises them to wait “until a solid northerly wind is established, which allows them to head as far south as possible.”
They must then cross the Doldrums, exiting with a southwesterly wind, and continue sailing upwind toward the Ecuadorian coast to reach the wind shift to the south, then southeast—signaling a direct tradewind route to the Marquesas.
Squalls, but No Cyclones
The main difficulty—and concern—for sailors involves squalls, potentially thunderstorm-related, “especially in the Doldrums,” Christian Dumard notes. Throughout the crossing, which is sailed mostly downwind, organizer David Allouch, who knows the route well, emphasizes the importance of closely monitoring squalls, “as they develop quickly and can be violent.”
He adds:
“You always need to keep an eye astern since you’re sailing downwind, and at night, having radar is a real advantage. Even if it doesn’t allow you to avoid a squall due to limited boat speed, it helps you anticipate it—provided you are always ready to reduce sail, at least the headsail.”
David Allouch further explains:
“On the leading edge of a squall, wind speeds can briefly reach 50 knots, then behind it, you may have rain and as little as 5 knots of wind for half an hour, until the trade winds re-establish themselves.”
Once past the longitude of the Galápagos, all participants are sailing in a 10–15 knot southeast trade wind—generally lighter than in the Atlantic—with a more eased, almost due-west course.
What about cyclone risk? Christian Dumard is unequivocal:
“There is no cyclone risk in the Marquesas. In the Tuamotus and Tahiti, it can happen, but it is quite rare. The most dangerous area is the Western Pacific—Samoa, Fiji, and New Caledonia—up until the end of April.”
In French Polynesia, during the period when Pacific Puddle Jump participants will be arriving, “there is little to no weather risk,” adds David Allouch. This forecast is confirmed by meteo.pf, whose outlook for 2026 indicates very low cyclonic activity, with slightly cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures.
“The transpacific crossing is longer than an Atlantic crossing, but it turns out to be easier and less tiring,” concludes the organizer.
